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Hurricaneville is now going to feature its own outlook on the tropics. This report will be issued twice a day. In the morning, and in the evening. This is not designed to compete with the National Hurricane Center. They are the experts, and more importantly, the official word on tropical storms and hurricanes. Please go to their web site for their advisories, outlooks, and discussions, but feel free to use this as supplemental information. In our outlook, we have a breakdown of what's happening in the Atlantic by four regions: Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, North Atlantic, and Africa.

Good morning everyone. I took a trip down to the Jersey Shore to check out some of the conditions there in advance of the coastal low that is moving slowly northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast. So, I didn't get a chance to update this portion of the site on Tuesday. Neverthless, I have continued to monitor things around the tropics. The tropical low that we were talking about on Labor Day has intensified not only into a cyclone, but nearly a major hurricane. Meanwhile, the rest of the Atlantic tropics have been fairly tranquil. Let's take a closer look around.

In the Gulf, there are clouds and showers in the Northwestern portion of the Gulf near the upper Texas coast. This has been sparked by a Northwesterly flow between an upper level ridge over Southern Mexico, and a upper level trough over Northeastern Florida. There are also more scattered clouds and showers in the Bay of Campeche region resulting from upper level diffluence from the ridge over Southern Mexico. Nothing tropical is expected to form out of this. No development is expected over the next 24 hours..

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In the Caribbean, the weather couldn't be better. So, if you planned a cruise or a vacation there for this week, you came up a winner, which is quite rare during the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. There is a trough of low pressure extending from the Southwestern Atlantic through the Bahamas and into Cuba that is producing scattered showers and storms. In addition, there is a area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave axis that is producing showers and storms over Puerto Rico as well as the British and United States Virgin Islands. Finally, there is a tropical wave in the Southwestern Caribbean, but it is very close to land in Panama. No development is expected over the next 24 hours.

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The Atlantic is active once again as our tropical disturbance became a depression, then a storm, and now a Category Two Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This sixth named storm of the season, Hurricane Fred, is still well out into the Eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands. As of the 5:00 AM EDT Advisory, Fred was located some 500 miles to the West-Southwest of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands with winds of 105 miles per hour.

Minimum central pressure has dropped to 970 millibars, or 28.64 inches of Hg as it moves to the West-Northwest at 13 miles per hour. Environmental factors are still supportive of further development, and Fred could become the season's second major hurricane later on Wednesday. More details on Fred will be appearing in the blog and the Hurricaneville Storm Report. Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is a tropical wave ready to move off the West African coast again. Further development possible with Fred over the next 24 hours.

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Looking at the African satellite this late Wednesday morning, another tropical wave has moved out into the Eastern Atlantic ocean from Western Africa. Meanwhile, another small cluster of showers and storms are headed toward the Atlantic in the Northern portion of the Ivory Coast while another is right behind it in Southeastern Burkina Faso. Elsewhere, tropical formation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

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