Hurricaneville is now going to feature its own storm report on the latest storm in the Atlantic, or even perhaps the Eastern Pacific, if warranted. This report will be issued twice a day. In the morning, and in the evening. This is not designed to compete with the National Hurricane Center. They are the experts, and more importantly, the official word on tropical storms and hurricanes. Please go to their web site for their advisories, outlooks, and discussions, but feel free to use this as supplemental information.
Hurricane Fred
September 9, 2009 11:12 AM EDTGood late Wednesday morning to everyone, especially all coastal residents from Maine to Texas. Hurricaneville continues to monitor things in the tropics, and you can see the latest analysis in the Tracking the Tropics segment. In addition, there is a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coast that is expected to bring strong easterly winds and possible tidal flooding to the Jersey Shore on Thursday. You can read details on that in the blog. Our focus here right now is Hurricane Fred.
I waited until the 11:00 AM EDT Advisory came out from the National Hurricane Center before I issued this update. The reason for that was because I had a feeling Fred was going to strengthen some more. Usually when you get these rapid intensifications, storms such as Fred can go from a fledgling tropical storm to a Category Four or Five hurricane within 24 to 48 hours. On Monday night, Fred emerged as the sixth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season after briefly being a depression.
On Tuesday, Fred continued to gradually strengthen as it became a strong tropical storm by the afternoon. Then, overnight into Wednesday, pressure in the eye began to fall more rapidly as it not only strengthened into the season's second hurricane, but it reached Category Two strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with 105 mile per hour winds. It hasn't stopped there either. Fred continues to grow, and as of this latest bulletin from the NHC, maximum sustained winds have increased to 120 miles per hour, which makes it the second major hurricane of 2009. Wind gusts are now in upwards of 150 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure has fallen to 958 millbars, or 28.28 inches.
From the time it was an impressive tropical wave with low pressure of 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches of Hg, Fred's minimum central pressure has dropped 49 millibars in 42 hours. Now, that is rapid intensification for you. Hurricane force winds extend some 30 miles from the eye while tropical storm force winds reach out about 115 miles. Looking at the latest satellite imagery from both the Tropical Atlantic and Africa, there is a pinhole like eye feature along with a solid core (CDO), and good outflow, particuarly in the northern semicircle.
Presently, Fred is located some 540 miles to the West of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands. The hurricane is moving toward the Northwest at 13 miles per hour. From a forecast track standpoint, the system has been well behaved. In a forecast discussion from Monday night, there was an indication of a turn more to the North with time accompanied by a decrease in forward motion. Both have happened. The official forecast track has Fred continuing to head northward as it falls under the influence of an upper level trough situated in the Central Atlantic. Most of the forecast track models are in agreement with this motion except for the CLIPER and AEMN.
Looking at the intensity models, and forecast guidance from the NHC, Fred could still strengthen some more in the short term. Fred is still in a favorable environment, but the window is closing for that. Starting tomorrow, the system will be moving into an environment with more wind shear at the upper levels, and cooler sea surface temperatures. As a result, there is a gradual weakening expected. The official forecast calls for Fred to become a tropical storm within 72 hours. The SHIPS model has it staying a hurricane a bit longer while the GFDL and HWRF still have Fred as a hurricane by the end of the 5 day forecast period. Both the latter two models also have Fred on a farther north forecast track because they keep it as a hurricane longer.
