Hurricaneville is now going to feature its own storm report on the latest storm in the Atlantic, or even perhaps the Eastern Pacific, if warranted. This report will be issued twice a day. In the morning, and in the evening. This is not designed to compete with the National Hurricane Center. They are the experts, and more importantly, the official word on tropical storms and hurricanes. Please go to their web site for their advisories, outlooks, and discussions, but feel free to use this as supplemental information.
Tropical Storm Hanna, Hurricane Ike, and Tropical Storm Josephine
September 5, 2008 at 1:45 PM EDTGood afternoon everyone. Well, it has been almost exactly a year since I posted one of these, and I'm sorry about that. I got really busy with my job at the end of last hurricane season, and also did a lot of work during the fall for my hoops web site. Anyway, I have continued to follow the progress of our trio of storms right now in the Atlantic: Tropical Storm Hanna, Hurricane Ike, and Tropical Storm Josephine. Of the three, Hanna is the more immediate concern while Ike is the most dangerous of the triumvirate of storms currently being monitored.
Hanna has lived a very tumultuous life as both a tropical storm and a minimal hurricane. The storm peaked in intensity on Labor Day afternoon when its winds reached 80 miles per hour making it a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Since that time, Hanna has weakened, and now has winds of 70 miles per hour after being down to 65 miles per hour for the past day or two.
Over the past 18 hours, Hanna has been showing signs of some strengthening. Pressure dipped down to 980 millibars, or 28.94 inches of Hg, which is well below the threshold a minimal hurricane has (987 mb, or 29.15 inches of Hg). There has been a flare up of strong shower and thunderstorm activity on the southern and western side of the circulation. The bulk of the precipitation has been hitting portions of South Florida on Thursday night, and earlier on Friday.
Another thing that has occured with Hanna is the increase in forward speed. Around this time yesterday, it was moving at about 12 miles per hour. Now, it is moving more rapidly to the North at 20 miles per hour. The storm is presently located some 160 miles to the East-Northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida, or about 310 miles South of Wilmington, North Carolina. However, effects from this system can be felt well ahead of the storm's arrival since tropical storm force winds extend some 315 miles from the center of circulation.
Storm surge levels are expected to be at 4 to 6 feet above normal and the higher end of this range can be expected during high tide. Rainfall amounts are expected to fall between 3 to 7 inches in Coastal South Carolina, Eastern North Carolina, and Southeastern Virginia. Higher amounts in the form of 4 to 8 inches can be anticipated in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where a Flood Watch has been issued in parts of the area already in anticipation of the storm's arrival there on Saturday.
Looking at the latest discussion, radar, and satellite imagery, you can see signs that Hanna continues to get its act together. While it doesn't have much time to become a super powerful hurricane on the order of Katrina, Rita, or Wilma, it could stll become a hurricane of minimal strength with winds of 75 to 80 miles per hour. On top of that, you add the forward speed of a storm moving northward, and this could cause problems, especially in the infamous Northeast quadrant.
On the satellite, especially, you can see a very noticeable difference in Hanna from last night. The storm didn't seem to have much of a core on Thursday night. Now, it does. A convective burst that developed with the storm during the night, and continued to flare up on Friday morning, helped create the inner core it has now. A cold front to the west along with the jet stream, and the high to the east has created an alley for Hanna to go through. The storm should follow it through, head to the North, and then Northeast before recurving out to sea.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Atlantic Coast of the United States from Altamaha Sound in Georgia to Sandy Hook, New Jersey while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Sandy Hook to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Long Island. A portion of the Warning area from north of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Currituck Light in North Carolina has a Hurricane Watch in effect.
The most significant threat in the Atlantic Ocean right now is Hurricane Ike. It is the third major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season with winds at Category Three intensity. Ike had gone through a rapid intensification phase from late Tuesday night into early Thursday morning. It went from being a strong tropical storm with winds of 65 miles per hour, and a presure of 996 millibars to a Category Four Hurricane with winds of 145 miles per hour, and a pressure of 935 millibars. A decline of 61 millibars, and an increase of 80 miles per hour in just 30 hours time.
However, since that time, Ike has waned. Although its core has remained in tact, the effects of Northeasterly shear from the combination of high pressure to the north of it, and Hanna to the west, the Northwestern eyewall has eroded. In addition, the eye has become less visible from the latest satellite imagery. Further weakening is expected over the next day or two with Ike, and it may go below major hurricane status. But, by Sunday it should start to restrengthen as the northeasterly shear is forecast to abate, and with the warm ocean waters of the Tropical Atlantic still below it (sea surface temperatures in the area are about 29 degrees Celsius, or 84 degrees Fahrenheit, it is very possible that Ike could become not only a major hurricane, but also a Category Four Hurricane again.
Forecast track for Ike has it going to the West with a bit of a West-Southwest jaunt over the next couple of days. A very strong subtropical ridge has built in the area to the north of Ike, and is going to push southeastward. Forecast is calling for the hurricane to push eventually westward into South Florida sometime early next week. If Ike pulls through with this forecast, it will be the first major hurricane to hit that area since Hurricane Andrew in August 1992. All interests in the Bahamas, particularly, the Southeastern portion of the island chain as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands should closely monitor the future track of the storm since Ike is about 550 miles away as of this time. Florida, the Southeastern United States, and the Gulf Coast should also watch the future whereabouts of this system.
The last and the weakest of the threats in the Atlantic right now is Josephine, which has been battling the elements in the Eastern Atlantic. As of late this morning, Tropical Storm Josephine was located some 695 miles to the West of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Winds had decreased to 45 miles per hour, and a central pressure of 1003 millibars, or 29.62 inches of Hg (Mercury).
Fluctuations in intensity were expected with this system over the next 24 hours. However, looking at the latest satellite imagery from the Atlantic, you can see that Josephine has really taken a beating, and may not be a storm for much longer. In any event, this storm appears to be only a threat to fishing and shipping interests. It is too early to tell if it will affect any land areas at all, but it is fairly far north already, and that is a good sign for coastal and island residents across the Atlantic Basin. We'll have to see if that continues over time.