For the first time ever, NEMAS, fomerly Northeast Media of Atmospheric Science, and now National Environmental and Meteorological Association, has issued a seasonal forecast on hurricanes. NEMAS, which has been a long time supporter of Hurricaneville, predicted that 2003 would be an above average year for hurricanes in the Atlantic with 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

NEMAS cites a persistent subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and a developing La Nina episode in the Pacific for as the reasons for the above average hurricane season forecast. Looking at their numbers in respect to both NOAA and the team assembled by Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University, NEMAS appears to be in agreement as far as the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, but may be even a bit more optimistic than their more experienced forecasting counterparts.

For the past several years the National Oceanic and Atmosphieric Administration has been issuing seasonal forecasts on tropical storms and hurricanes. Prior to that, Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado State had been doing it for close to 20 years. Now, NEMAS, the National Environmental and Meteorological Association have issued their first ever seasonal forecast.

The NEMAS team, which is led by Matt Douglas, President and Ray Hawthorne, Forecaster In Charge of the Tropical Forecast Division, indicated that 2003 will be an active year. For the 2003 season, the team at NEMAS believes that there will be 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, which is well above the averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

NEMAS, which has been around in some form for over a decade now, is a "non-profit corporation with a mission of disseminating important weather information to the public by way of the following mediums; forecasts, charts and maps, special preparedness information, and through educational materials." After nearly shutting down a couple years ago, the organization has come back rather strong with the Tropical Forecast Division as one of its biggest assets.

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NEMAS felt rather strongly about the chances of the 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Citing a very strong and persistent subtropical ridge in the Central Atlantic, and a developing La Nina (cold phase of the Southern Oscillation) in the Pacific. At the time of their report, which was back on June 1, 2003, NEMAS indicated that sea surface temperatures near Peru over the previous four to six weeks were up to three degrees Celsius below normal.

As far as the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic is concerned, NEMAS cited that this ridge had almost completely extended from the West African coastline to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. As a result, above average temperatures occurred in places such as the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf Coast area of the United States.

In addition, the ridge followed a typical migration pattern to the north as all the major atmospheric circulation patterns do during this time of year, which would promote a deep easterly flow pattern in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere while the westerlies would be contained farther north. So far, the subtropical high in the Atlantic has been true to form for much of the season, but the La Nina episode has not really materialized.

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Summarizing the 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season as of the time of this report, we have had already five named storms, and two hurricanes including Hurricane Claudette, which was nearly a Category Two Hurricane prior to landfall. In addition, there have been also three tropical depressions: Tropical Depression Two, Tropical Depression Six, and Tropical Depression Seven.

According to the Monthly Summary for July 2003 by NOAA, an average year would have seen only 1.6 named storms, and 0.6 hurricanes by the end of July. Meawnhile, forecasters at NOAA have indicated that the 2003 season will be above average with between 12 to 15 named storms, 7 to 9 named storms, and 3 to 4 hurricanes, which is slightly higher than what they forecasted in May, 2003. Slightly in contrast, Dr. William Gray and his team of forecasters were not as optimistic.

Altough their numbers for named storms (14), hurricanes (8), and major hurricanes (3), were the same as earlier in the year, Gray's forecast lowered its net tropical activity rating from to 120 from 145. Finally, NEMAS, which issued its first ever seasonal hurricane forecast, projected 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 hurricanes in an above average year.

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